Construction Backlog Indicator Reaches Another All-Time High
“联合建筑商和承包商(ABC)的建设积压指数(CBI)在2014年第三季度达到了历史新高，为8.8 months, eclipsing the previous all-time high of 8.5 months in the 2nd quarter of 2014. The 2014 3rd quarter backlog is 6.比2013年第三季度高出9%，过去六个月待售房屋数量的持续增长可能表明，2015年将是美国非住宅建筑行业强劲复苏的一年.”
“&在第三季度，美国的每个地区和每个行业部门都经历了积压订单的扩大,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “最近有关非住宅建筑和就业的数据只显示出零星的增长, 哪些数据与今年早些时候不太乐观的积压数据一致. 但过去两个季度的情况却很乐观，美国非住宅类承包商的平均工作量将会增加.
“Given the recent acceleration in job growth, the improvement in the quality of jobs being added, and a still-accommodative Federal Reserve, the U.S. 2015年的宏观经济展望是后衰退时期对经济前景最乐观的评估,” said Basu. “The nation has added more than 2.6 million jobs over the past 12 months and, for the first time in six years, the nation’s unemployment rate has dipped below 6%. While there are a number of headwinds, 包括仍然不稳定的全球经济和可能影响石油生产和相关资本支出的油价大幅下跌, most leading indicators remain positive. 贷款条件似乎正在放松，繁荣的股市也产生了积极的财富和信心效应.”
Regional Highlights
- 在过去的一年中，东北地区的积压订单平均增加了近两个月，西部地区则增加了两个多月. 这与许多东西海岸社区的快速反弹是一致的，这些社区在几年前曾受到住房和金融危机的拖累.
- Average backlog is at or nearly at a record high in three regions, the Northeast, Middle States, and the West.
- Backlog in the South has not progressed over the past year, 但由于最近路易斯安那州经济增长的加速，该公司将扩大规模, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and a number of other states.
Industry Highlights
- Based on recent CBI readings, 2015年，中国工业领域的投资应该会相当可观. Once beholden to foreign energy producers, 美国现在即将成为世界上最大的石油生产国，并且已经是世界上最重要的天然气供应国. 这对美国工厂和分销设施投资的显著增加做出了贡献.
- 消费者支出依然强劲，专业服务部门比经济的任何部门都增加了更多的就业机会. 不足为奇的是，商业部门的平均待办事项保持在一个很高的水平.
- 州和地方政府预算的反弹可能会帮助基础设施领域的积压项目继续增加，尽管联邦一级的僵局正在持续.
Adapted from: http://www.abc.org/NewsMedia/ConstructionEconomics/ConstructionBacklogIndicator/tabid/272/entryid/2963/construction-backlog-indicator-reaches-another-all-time-high.aspx
Architecture Firms Remain in Growth Mode
“10月份，建筑公司的经营状况依然乐观, with the national Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 53.7. With solid ABI scores for six straight months, 建筑市场(尤其是非住宅建筑)的全面复苏似乎已成定局. Since new project inquiries remain strong, and new design contracts continue to build, 在接下来的几个月里，建筑公司将会看到稳定的新项目活动.”
从地区来看，美国东北部的公司10月份出人意料地表现疲弱. 整个夏天，这一地区的情况非常强劲，没有任何迹象表明最近的疲软. However, 从收入角度来看，中国其他三个地区的公司都非常健康, 这些地区的公司本月的ABI评分都有所上升.”
“就专业化而言，机构公司继续报告了意外强劲的增长. Having remained weak since the beginning of the last building downturn, institutional ABI scores have been above 50 for three straight months. Scores for residential firms also remain very high, although they have been easing somewhat in recent months. 商业/工业企业最近报告了商业状况的改善, 但与住宅和机构公司相比，账单的增长速度并没有那么快.”
Adapted from: http://www.aia.org/practicing/AIAB10490
NRCI Third Quarter 2014 Highlights
Overall Economy:
NRCI panelists’ view of the overall economy slipped 6.3 points this quarter compared to last quarter; however, the component index is still in growth territory at 74.8, 2.8 points higher than the third quarter 2013.
Overall Economy Where Panelists Do Business:
The economy where panelists do business slipped 6.9 points in line with the overall economy to a score of 75.0.
Panelists’ Construction Business:
Panelists’ outlook for their construction business fell back just 2.5 points to 76.6, still in positive range and six points higher than Q3 2014.
小组成员经营的非住宅建筑市场:
小组成员认为，他们所在的市场比上一季度略弱，低于上一季度的79.3 to 74.2.
Expected Change in Backlog:
Despite some pullback in optimism about the economy and markets, panelists are still expecting backlogs to improve, 过去两个季度，该集团积压订单的中值已从9个月上升至10个月.
Cost of Construction Materials and Labor:
NRCI中对整体得分下降影响最大的两个因素是材料成本的上升和劳动力成本的大幅上升. 一方面，这些组成部分表明提高利润率仍有困难. On the other hand, 原材料和劳动力价格的上涨通常表明商业状况正在改善，原材料和劳动力可以要求更高的价格和工资.
Productivity:
Productivity improvement can help offset higher costs, and a 1.4-point improvement in this component is a good sign. 承包商现在面临的挑战是，在积压订单不断增加的情况下，寻找合格的员工来帮助维持和提高生产率.
Adapted from: http://www.fminet.com/media/pdf/forecasts/NRCI_Q3_2014.pdf
These projections are based on assumptions of fact which may not occur, and are speculative in nature. 这些预测没有经过独立会计师、法律顾问或其他顾问的审查或批准. 这些假设在未来可能会发生变化，而且可能超出公司的控制范围. 任何假设的改变或变化都会改变预测的财务报表和分析. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is intended as to the reasonableness or accuracy of these projections.
